Tri Talk Kona I.Q.

The Tri Talk Kona Index of Qualifiers (I.Q.) is an attempt to objectively quantify the relative difficulty of qualifying for the Ironman Championships in Kona, Hawaii at each of the 21 qualifying world-wide full Ironman events. While training, genetics, and hard work will always be the primary factors in triathlon performance, the author believes that the odds of qualifying for Kona can be significantly influenced based on the race venue in which an athlete chooses to attempt to qualify.

Conventional race selection process for a Kona hopeful has been based on economics, qualifying spots, location, season, and race course topography or environmental conditions. The athlete may have to simply choose a race they can afford to travel to, or one that gives them an advantage based on their strengths, such as good performance in hills or hot conditions. This individual selection process should not (and in some cases, cannot) be replaced by the Kona I.Q. Rather, the author hopes to add value to the triathlete by adding an objective race ranking report in the event athlete has the ability to choose between qualifiers. All other individual factors being equal, one race may be easier to qualify for than another.

The author proposes that there are other, less-tangible factors that draw to a race either a higher number athletes in a certain age group and/or athletes with a higher (or lower) level of performance. High or low numbers of athletes from either of these two categories at an event could significantly influence the ability to qualify.

The Kona I.Q. is based on a simple formula that establishes relative baseline race difficulty, and matches that to the performance of the last (slowest) qualifying time for that age group. Note that it does not simply take the slowest last qualifying time for each age group. Rather, it compares that last qualifying time to the top finishers for that same event on the same race day. A percentage is then assigned to each age group for each race. That percentage represents how much slower the last qualifier was relative to the top finishers for that event. Therefore, a race where the last qualifier for a particular age group was 20% slower than the top finishers that day, would theoretically be easier to qualify for than a race where the last qualifier was 10% slower than the top finishers for that race.

The Kona I.Q. is presented in both a 1-year index, and also a 3-year index for races with at least 3 years of race results. After significant review of the data, the author believes that the 1-year index is superior to the 3-year index for forecasting the following year's races, but the 3-year index is included as well. The reader will note the exclusion of analysis of any qualifying 70.3 event. However, because only one 70.3 event offers more qualifying spots than the other 21 full Ironman venues, it is assumed that a 70.3 race will be, in general, more difficult to qualify for than at a full Ironman. This is certainly not true across the board, and does not apply to athletes with strong performance at that 70.3 distance. 70.3 Kona qualifiers will be integrated into the Kona I.Q. at a later date, as will a separate 70.3 I.Q. for the Clearwater 70.3 Championships.

This web page fails to articulate other factors and potential flaws the index. A full analysis of the Kona I.Q. can be listened to in Tri Talk Episode 39.

1-Year Index*

Updated 04/27/07

Ranked by last (slowest) qualifying time relative to race leader performance

International Venues

North America Venues

Age Group

W18-24

CAN

BRA

FRA

ZAF

USA

CAN

USA

CDA

FLA

Legend

W25-29

KOR

LNZ

MYS

USA

CDA

FLA

AUS

Australia

W30-34

FRA

CAN

ZAF

FLA

CAN

FLA

CDA

USA

AUT

Austria

W35-39

LNZ

MYS

ZAF

JPN

DUE

USA

CAN

CDA

Arizona

W40-44

JPN

CHE

LNZ

USA

CDA

USA

CDA

FLA

BRA

Brazil

W45-49

LNZ

JPN

FRA

ZAF

CDA

USA

CAN

Canada

W50-54

ZAF

LNZ

AUS

CDA

CAN

USA

CDA

Coeur D'Alene

W55-59

ZAF

LNZ

CAN

DUE

CAN

CDA

USA

FLA

CHE

Switzerland

W60-64

WAU

NZL

CAN

AUT

FLA

CAN

FLA

No Data

DUE

Germany

W65+

FLA

ZAF

WAU

NZL

CAN

FLA

No Data

FLA

Florida

M18-24

NZL

KOR

USA

CDA

CAN

FRA

France

M25-29

NZL

AUT

USA

CDA

FLA

JPN

Japan

M30-34

BRA

DUE

NZL

CDA

USA

CAN

KOR

Korea

M35-39

NZL

MYS

CDA

DUE

CDA

CAN

USA

LNZ

Lanzarote

M40-44

BRA

FRA

AUS

USA

CDA

CAN

MYS

Malaysia

M45-49

DUE

CDA

JPN

CDA

FLA

USA

NZL

New Zealand

M50-54

AUT

BRA

ZAF

FRA

USA

CAN

CDA

United Kingdom

M55-59

CHE

MYS

FRA

LNZ

USA

CDA

FLA

USA

Lake Placid

M60-64

FRA

CDA

WAU

AUT

CDA

CAN

USA

WAU

Western Australia

M65-69

NZL

AUT

AUS

WAU

USA

CDA

FLA

Wisconsin

M70+

DUE

CDA

KOR

LNZ

CDA

FLA

CAN

No Data

ZAF

South Africa

*The 1-year index does not include the inaugural 2007 Ironman Louisville, and uses 2005 event data for Ironman Wisconsin and Coeur D'Alene.

Below: Ranked by relative difficulty to qualify by age group, for all 20 full-length Ironman events. The percentage represents how much slower the last qualifier was behind race leaders. Therefore, a higher percentage theoretically represents less performance to qualify relative to the other events (click image to enlarge).

W18-24	W25-29	W30-34	W35-39	W40-44


W45-49	W50-54	W55-59	W60-64	W65+


M18-24	M25-29	M30-34	M35-39	M40-44


M45-49	M50-54	M55-59	M60-64	M65-69


		M70+