Tri Talk Kona I.Q.

3-Year Index

The Tri Talk Kona Index of Qualifiers (I.Q.) is an attempt to objectively quantify the relative difficulty of qualifying for the Ironman Championships in Kona, Hawaii at each of the 21 qualifying world-wide full Ironman events. While training, genetics, and hard work will always be the primary factors in triathlon performance, the author believes that the odds of qualifying for Kona can be significantly influenced based on the race venue in which an athlete chooses to attempt to qualify.

Conventional race selection process for a Kona hopeful has been based on economics, qualifying spots, location, season, and race course topography or environmental conditions. The athlete may have to simply choose a race they can afford to travel to, or one that gives them an advantage based on their strengths, such as good performance in hills or hot conditions. This individual selection process should not (and in some cases, cannot) be replaced by the Kona I.Q. Rather, the author hopes to add value to the triathlete by adding an objective race ranking report in the event athlete has the ability to choose between qualifiers. All other individual factors being equal, one race may be easier to qualify for than another.

The author proposes that there are other, less-tangible factors that draw to a race either a higher number athletes in a certain age group and/or athletes with a higher (or lower) level of performance. High or low numbers of athletes from either of these two categories at an event could significantly influence the ability to qualify.

The Kona I.Q. is based on a simple formula that establishes relative baseline race difficulty, and matches that to the performance of the last (slowest) qualifying time for that age group. Note that it does not simply take the slowest last qualifying time for each age group. Rather, it compares that last qualifying time to the top finishers for that same event on the same race day. A percentage is then assigned to each age group for each race. That percentage represents how much slower the last qualifier was relative to the top finishers for that event. Therefore, a race where the last qualifier for a particular age group was 20% slower than the top finishers that day, would theoretically be easier to qualify for than a race where the last qualifier was 10% slower than the top finishers for that race.

The Kona I.Q. is presented in both a 1-year index, and also a 3-year index for races with at least 3 years of race results. After significant review of the data, the author believes that the 1-year index is superior to the 3-year index for forecasting the following year's races, but the 3-year index is included as well. The reader will note the exclusion of analysis of any qualifying 70.3 event. However, because only one 70.3 event offers more qualifying spots than the other 21 full Ironman venues, it is assumed that a 70.3 race will be, in general, more difficult to qualify for than at a full Ironman. This is certainly not true across the board, and does not apply to athletes with strong performance at that 70.3 distance. 70.3 Kona qualifiers will be integrated into the Kona I.Q. at a later date, as will a separate 70.3 I.Q. for the Clearwater 70.3 Championships.

This web page fails to articulate other factors and potential flaws the index. A full analysis of the Kona I.Q. can be listened to in Tri Talk Episode 39.

 

3-Year Index* Updated 04/27/07
Ranked by last (slowest) qualifying time relative to race leader performance
	International Venues					North America Venues
Age Group	1	2	3	4	5	1	2	3	4	5	Legend AUS Australia AUT Austria AZ Arizona BRA Brazil CAN Canada CDA Coeur D'Alene CHE Switzerland DUE Germany FLA Florida FRA France JPN Japan KOR Korea LNZ Lanzarote MYS Malaysia NZL New Zealand UK United Kingdom USA Lake Placid WAU Western Australia WI Wisconsin ZAF South Africa
W18-24	LNZ	BRA	CAN	NZL	USA	CAN	USA	AZ	CDA	WI
W25-29	MYS	LNZ	NZL	AZ	USA	AZ	USA	CAN	WI	CDA
W30-34	MYS	AUT	USA	CAN	NZL	USA	CAN	WI	AZ	CDA
W35-39	ZAF	MYS	LNZ	JPN	WI	WI	CAN	AZ	USA	CDA
W40-44	JPN	NZL	USA	CHE	BRA	USA	AZ	CAN	CDA	WI
W45-49	LNZ	NZL	BRA	JPN	USA	USA	CDA	AZ	CAN	WI
W50-54	LNZ	ZAF	MYS	BRA	JPN	CDA	CAN	WI	AZ	USA
W55-59	DUE	CDA	JPN	FLA	WAU	CDA	FLA	AZ	No Data	No Data
W60-64	FLA	CAN	No Data	No Data	No Data	FLA	CAN	No Data	No Data	No Data
M18-24	AZ	USA	WI	CAN	MYS	AZ	USA	WI	CAN	CDA
M25-29	CAN	AZ	WI	MYS	NZL	CAN	AZ	WI	USA	CDA
M30-34	BRA	CAN	AZ	USA	LNZ	CAN	AZ	USA	CDA	WI
M35-39	USA	LNZ	WI	CAN	NZL	USA	WI	CAN	AZ	CDA
M40-44	USA	CAN	LNZ	WI	AZ	USA	CAN	WI	AZ	CDA
M45-49	MYS	AZ	JPN	USA	NZL	AZ	USA	CAN	WI	CDA
M50-54	MYS	AZ	CAN	NZL	AUT	AZ	CAN	USA	WI	CDA
M55-59	CHE	MYS	WI	USA	LNZ	WI	USA	CAN	AZ	CDA
M60-64	CDA	WI	AZ	MYS	CAN	CDA	WI	AZ	CAN	USA
M65-69	NZL	AZ	WI	WAU	AUS	AZ	WI	USA	CAN	FLA
M70+	AZ	CAN	FLA	No Data	No Data	AZ	CAN	FLA	No Data	No Data
*The 3-year index does not include the inaugural 2007 Ironman Louisville, uses 2005 event data for Ironman Wisconsin and Coeur D'Alene, and excludes Korea, France, and UK due to lack of 3-year history.

Below: Ranked by relative difficulty to qualify by age group, for all 20 full-length Ironman events. The percentage represents how much slower the last qualifier was behind race leaders. Therefore, a higher percentage theoretically represents less performance to qualify relative to the other events (click image to enlarge).
W18-24	W25-29	W30-34	W35-39	W40-44
				No Event with 3-Year data on W65+
W45-49	W50-54	W55-59	W60-64	W65+
M18-24	M25-29	M30-34	M35-39	M40-44
M45-49	M50-54	M55-59	M60-64	M65-69
		M70+